An interesting comparison of the Colmar Brunton poll results now and
at the same time before the last election:

But how good is it all for National? On the one hand, tremendously
good: to remain firmly in the high-40s in the twilight of a third term
is hugely impressive. And yet, the engine failure in Labour may
disguise at least some frailty on the part of the blue team and its
own leader’s appeal. Because if you compare the Colmar results of
today with those of July 2014, the same distance from the last
election, the numbers look a little less bulletproof.

National then: 52% Now: 47%

Labour then: 28% Now: 27%

Greens then: 10% Now: 11%

NZ First then: 4.5% Now: 11%

(https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-07-2017/the-latest-poll-offers-little-for-anyone-to-crow-about-apart-from-that-one-guy/)

So just why is Winston picking up so many votes from National?
Here is one theory that may give part of the answer:

New Zealand First leader Winston Peters visited Victoria University in Wellington. During his speech to students he questioned the media's
role in causing the "European" group to shut down. He accused
journalists of suppressing dissenting voices, and on his way out,
unashamedly signed a cartoon of a frog named Pepe - the most popular
symbol of the alt-right.

Peters' actions set the New Zealand 4Chan boards alight.

"Guess who just got my vote!!" one user wrote. "Winston is based".
(Based, loosely, means good).

"Absolutely BASED," said another. "Winnie has my undying respect."

"Winston is /ourguy/, right?" another asked. "I want someone to get
rid of the Indians and Chinese, those f****** are stealing our country
right out from under us."

In addition to the hype, users began earnestly discussing the
importance of helping Peters win.

"As we all know, meme magic is enormously powerful. Bill English has
lost the election, it belongs to Winston," one said.

"All that needs to happen is for us to make it happen through our
collective (meme) power. We have already started discussing this but
it is time to take it seriously."

. . . . . .
They also discussed a counter-strategy. "We need to start influencing
NZFirst both directly and through Young NZFirst," one wrote. "We need
to push Winnie standing on his own feet and saying he will not form a coalition."

"https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/10-07-2017/the-latest-poll-offers-little-for-anyone-to-crow-about-apart-from-that-one-guy/"

ACT may be mildly pissed off - they are supposed to be cannabilising
National by taking the far right nutters - while at the same time
helping National by being sufficiently extreme that National can
pretend to be centrist.

Still as we know the last election didn't result in National actually
getting that 52% - Winston must be very confident he can get a dutch
auction going to see how many baubles he can get for his last term . .
.

--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: Agency HUB, Dunedin - New Zealand | Fido<>Usenet Gateway (3:770/3)