Ministers are being pressed to reveal what contingency plans are in place
to deal with a future Covid variant that evades current vaccines, amid >warnings from scientific advisers that such an outcome could set the
battle against the pandemic back a year or more.
Recent papers produced by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for >Emergencies (Sage) have suggested that the arrival of a variant that
evades vaccines is a “realistic possibility”. Sage backed continued work >on new vaccines that reduce infection and transmission more than current >jabs, the creation of more vaccine-production facilities in the UK and >lab-based studies to predict evolution of variants.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/15/new-covid-variants-will-set-us-back-a-year-experts-warn-uk-government
With the arrival of a new variant seen as one of the main dangers that
could intensify the crisis once again, prominent scientific figures
stressed the risks. Prof Graham Medley, a member of Sage and a leader of
the government’s Covid modelling group, said it was “clearly something >that the planners and scientists should take very seriously as it would
put us back a long way”.
“It is not that different to the planning that needs to be done between >pandemics – a new variant that was able to overcome immunity significantly >would be essentially a new virus,” he said. “The advantage would be that >we know we can generate vaccines against this virus – and relatively >quickly. The disadvantage is that we would be back to the same situation
we were in a year ago, depending on how much impact current immunity had >against a new variant. Hopefully, evolution is slow, so that new variants >arise that are only marginally evasive rather than one big jump.” Dr Marc >Baguelin, from Imperial College’s Covid-19 response team and a member of >the government’s SPI-M modelling group, said preventing the importation of >variants of concern with “moderate to high immune-escape properties would >be critical, as these could lead to future waves orders of magnitude
larger than the ones experienced so far”.
“It is unlikely that such a new virus evades entirely all immunity from >past infection or vaccines,” he said. “Some immunity should remain at >least for the most severe outcomes such as death or hospitalisation. We
would most likely be able to update the current vaccines to include the >emerging strain.
“But doing so would take months and means that we might need to reimpose >restrictions if there were a significant public health risk. The amount of >restrictions would be a political decision and would need to be
proportionate with how much this virus would evade current vaccines.”
It comes with a further loosening of restrictions in England on Monday
when fully vaccinated people and under-18s will no longer be legally
required to self-isolate if they come into close contact with someone with >Covid. They will be advised, but not obliged, to take a PCR test instead. >Daily Covid cases have been hovering around the 30,000 mark. The latest >figures, from 13 August, showed that a further 32,700 had tested positive
and another 100 deaths were reported.
Meanwhile, all 16- and 17-year-olds in England will be offered a first
dose of vaccine over the next week to give them some protection before >schools return in September. Health secretary Sajid Javid urged older >teenagers not to delay. “Get your jabs as soon as you can so we can >continue to safely live with this virus and enjoy our freedoms by giving >yourself, your family and your community the protection they need,” he >said.
Boris Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings has already called >on the government to publish a “variant escape vaccine contingency plan” >and suggested MPs should explore ways of forcing ministers to do so. One >scientist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they would like to see >the publication of the national risk assessment relating to Covid-19 >contingency plans.
Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, is backing the
move. “It is critical that people have confidence in Boris Johnson’s Covid >strategy and trust him not to repeat the same mistakes of the last 18 >months,” she said. “Through refusing to self-isolate, breaking their own >rules and making mistakes that have cost lives, the government has lost >public trust. Transparency is the only way to begin winning that trust >back.”
Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St Andrews, >said: “It very much makes sense to be prepared. Scotland is setting up its >standing committee on pandemics. It will be interesting to see what
emerges on a UK level.
“In the longer-term we need a systematic inquiry into what went wrong (and >right) so we are prepared and also so that we can institute systemic
changes to protect us. The pandemic has been like a barium meal which has >exposed so many deficiencies in our society. We can no longer pretend we
are not aware of them. This has been a deafening wake-up call. Let’s make >sure we don’t press the snooze button.”
### - against all hope it would seem that the uk is now moving into its
4th wave of infections despite the fact that around 90% of the population
has already been vaccinated??
the full lifting of restrictions towards the end of last month and the >resulting gathering of huge crowds at sporting events, concerts,
nightclubs & bars throughout the land that is now occurring, being a sure >fired way to guarantee we soon start hitting some really big numbers
again, the percentage of people actually dying from it has seemingly
reduced somewhat but not by that much considering we're already back up to >100 currently dying every day and still climbing...
accordingly, am guessing 4 weeks from now we'll know for sure just what
kinda shit-storm we're again involved in huh if/when those figures don't >level-off as expected, imho the whole thing has been very badly handled
from the get-go, politicians obviously caring more about their damned
economies than the 100's of 1000's of ordinary people dying from it!
so what's next do ya reckon?
coz am fucked if i know!
it doesn't look very good whatever way ya look at it...
On Sun, 15 Aug 2021 12:53:39 +0100, slider <slider@anashram.com>
wrote:
Ministers are being pressed to reveal what contingency plans are in
place
to deal with a future Covid variant that evades current vaccines, amid
warnings from scientific advisers that such an outcome could set the
battle against the pandemic back a year or more.
Recent papers produced by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for >> Emergencies (Sage) have suggested that the arrival of a variant that
evades vaccines is a “realistic possibility”. Sage backed continued work >> on new vaccines that reduce infection and transmission more than current
jabs, the creation of more vaccine-production facilities in the UK and
lab-based studies to predict evolution of variants.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/15/new-covid-variants-will-set-us-back-a-year-experts-warn-uk-government
With the arrival of a new variant seen as one of the main dangers that
could intensify the crisis once again, prominent scientific figures
stressed the risks. Prof Graham Medley, a member of Sage and a leader of
the government’s Covid modelling group, said it was “clearly something >> that the planners and scientists should take very seriously as it would
put us back a long way”.
“It is not that different to the planning that needs to be done between
pandemics – a new variant that was able to overcome immunity
significantly
would be essentially a new virus,” he said. “The advantage would be that >> we know we can generate vaccines against this virus – and relatively
quickly. The disadvantage is that we would be back to the same situation
we were in a year ago, depending on how much impact current immunity had
against a new variant. Hopefully, evolution is slow, so that new
variants
arise that are only marginally evasive rather than one big jump.” Dr
Marc
Baguelin, from Imperial College’s Covid-19 response team and a member of >> the government’s SPI-M modelling group, said preventing the importation
of
variants of concern with “moderate to high immune-escape properties
would
be critical, as these could lead to future waves orders of magnitude
larger than the ones experienced so far”.
“It is unlikely that such a new virus evades entirely all immunity from
past infection or vaccines,” he said. “Some immunity should remain at
least for the most severe outcomes such as death or hospitalisation. We
would most likely be able to update the current vaccines to include the
emerging strain.
“But doing so would take months and means that we might need to reimpose >> restrictions if there were a significant public health risk. The amount
of
restrictions would be a political decision and would need to be
proportionate with how much this virus would evade current vaccines.”
It comes with a further loosening of restrictions in England on Monday
when fully vaccinated people and under-18s will no longer be legally
required to self-isolate if they come into close contact with someone
with
Covid. They will be advised, but not obliged, to take a PCR test
instead.
Daily Covid cases have been hovering around the 30,000 mark. The latest
figures, from 13 August, showed that a further 32,700 had tested
positive
and another 100 deaths were reported.
Meanwhile, all 16- and 17-year-olds in England will be offered a first
dose of vaccine over the next week to give them some protection before
schools return in September. Health secretary Sajid Javid urged older
teenagers not to delay. “Get your jabs as soon as you can so we can
continue to safely live with this virus and enjoy our freedoms by giving
yourself, your family and your community the protection they need,” he
said.
Boris Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings has already
called
on the government to publish a “variant escape vaccine contingency plan” >> and suggested MPs should explore ways of forcing ministers to do so. One
scientist, speaking on condition of anonymity, said they would like to
see
the publication of the national risk assessment relating to Covid-19
contingency plans.
Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, is backing the
move. “It is critical that people have confidence in Boris Johnson’s
Covid
strategy and trust him not to repeat the same mistakes of the last 18
months,” she said. “Through refusing to self-isolate, breaking their own >> rules and making mistakes that have cost lives, the government has lost
public trust. Transparency is the only way to begin winning that trust
back.”
Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St
Andrews,
said: “It very much makes sense to be prepared. Scotland is setting up
its
standing committee on pandemics. It will be interesting to see what
emerges on a UK level.
“In the longer-term we need a systematic inquiry into what went wrong
(and
right) so we are prepared and also so that we can institute systemic
changes to protect us. The pandemic has been like a barium meal which
has
exposed so many deficiencies in our society. We can no longer pretend we
are not aware of them. This has been a deafening wake-up call. Let’s
make
sure we don’t press the snooze button.”
### - against all hope it would seem that the uk is now moving into its
4th wave of infections despite the fact that around 90% of the
population
has already been vaccinated??
the full lifting of restrictions towards the end of last month and the
resulting gathering of huge crowds at sporting events, concerts,
nightclubs & bars throughout the land that is now occurring, being a
sure
fired way to guarantee we soon start hitting some really big numbers
again, the percentage of people actually dying from it has seemingly
reduced somewhat but not by that much considering we're already back up
to
100 currently dying every day and still climbing...
accordingly, am guessing 4 weeks from now we'll know for sure just what
kinda shit-storm we're again involved in huh if/when those figures don't
level-off as expected, imho the whole thing has been very badly handled
from the get-go, politicians obviously caring more about their damned
economies than the 100's of 1000's of ordinary people dying from it!
so what's next do ya reckon?
coz am fucked if i know!
it doesn't look very good whatever way ya look at it...
So Slider, have you had your vax? Both shots, if so?
AV vx? That's what I've had, and my missus. We need to wait another
6 weeks before we can have our second shot. I can't wait, it won't
stop infection (Delta is here but not in my state, which is the second biggest state in the world after Siberia) - we are still completely
isolated and that's a good thing.
Lastly, are you concerned for your own health? You're in your late or
mid 60s like me, makes you vulnerable due solely to age and breakdown
of the immune system.
I am, but only because I haven't fucking sorted out my affairs yet.
Don't even know what I'm worth, so many collections, things,
investments, etc etc - I really do not want to leave such rich
pickings for all my descendants should I bite the dust due to Covid.
So, to summarise - have you had your shots, were they Astra, and are
you concerned about your health?
| Sysop: | sneaky |
|---|---|
| Location: | Ashburton,NZ |
| Users: | 28 |
| Nodes: | 8 (0 / 8) |
| Uptime: | 126:27:49 |
| Calls: | 1,998 |
| Calls today: | 2 |
| Files: | 11,111 |
| Messages: | 943,026 |