WTPZ42 KNHC 031437
TCDEP2

Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021
900 AM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

The satellite presentation of Blanca this morning is a bit better
organized with the diurnal convective maximum resulting in a region
of cold cloud tops between -75 to -80 C with some slight banding
near and to the northeast of the estimated center. Subjective Dvorak
intensity estimates were 30 kt from both SAB and TAFB, while the
most recent UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate was 33 kt. The initial
intensity was kept at 30 kt for this advisory.

The ongoing burst of convective activity has nudged the center of
Blanca slightly further north and slowed the system further, with an
average 12-h heading of 275/3 kt. Assuming that the convective
activity this morning is transient, the shallow cyclone should
remain steered westward for the foreseeable future by a poleward
low-level ridge. The latest forecast is similar to the previous
cycle, and lies just slightly south of the TVCE consensus guidance.

The ongoing convective activity near Blanca has given it at least
another 12-18 hours of life. In fact, it would not be out of the
question that Blanca could briefly regain tropical storm status if
the convection proves to be more persistent, especially since the
cyclone remains over 27 C sea-surface temperatures and these values
only slowly decrease as the forecast track parallels the 26-deg-C
isotherm. However, unfavorable strong vertical wind shear resulting
in entrainment of dry, stable air to the northwest should eventually
win out, with the latest NHC forecast still expecting Blanca to
become a remnant low in 24 h, followed by dissipation in 72-96 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.7N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 15.7N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 15.7N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 15.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 16.0N 119.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 16.2N 120.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 16.4N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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