ACUS11 KWNS 131944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131944
LAZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0378
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021

Areas affected...southern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94...

Valid 131944Z - 132145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 94
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues -- mainly over coastal areas of
southern Louisiana.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows outflow from widespread inland
convection now moving southward toward/off the southern Louisiana
Coast, and is expected to clear all Parishes west of the river in
the next 1 to 2 hours. Greatest ongoing severe risk remains with
the more surface-based storms near this outflow -- across Terrebonne/Lafourche/Jefferson/Plaquemines Parishes, where large
hail and locally strong/possibly damaging gusts may occur.

Elsewhere, weaker storms in a warm-advection regime north of the
outflow are increasing across south central Louisiana. While some
hail cannot be ruled out, the greater risk should taper off as
outflow advances into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

..Goss.. 04/13/2021

ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON 29789242 29899211 29839161 29719098 29749058 29998996
29858932 29468905 28808883 28729130 29289212 29789242

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ACUS11 KWNS 242313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242313
GAZ000-ALZ000-250115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0613 PM CDT Sat Apr 24 2021

Areas affected...Northeast Alabama and northwest Georgia

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110...

Valid 242313Z - 250115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 110
continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across northeast Alabama and northwest
Georgia will continue to pose a risk for severe hail and wind
through the evening hours.

DISCUSSION...Discrete and embedded supercells continue to traverse
eastward across northeast AL in the vicinity of a surface low and
along a weak trough axis. Several severe hail reports have been
noted with this activity, and and an environment featuring 1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE along with 50-60 knots of effective bulk shear will
remain supportive of a severe hail threat for the next couple of
hours. Deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the trough axis may
favor eventual upscale growth that could limit the hail threat while
augmenting the potential for damaging winds, though the exact
evolution is uncertain.

However, the environment remains somewhat spatially limited with
eastward extent due to cooler air to the north of a weak warm front,
and a residual cold pool in place across central GA. Modest warm air
advection in the 925-850 mb layer across northwest GA may allow for
some eastward expansion of the viable warm sector, but the general
expectation is for storms to gradually weaken as they move into
north-central GA later this evening.

..Moore.. 04/24/2021

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON 33198699 33978625 34378583 34698526 34858481 34638428
34428375 34048351 33698345 33348360 33038415 32878484
32748544 32768603 32838651 32988681 33198699

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

ACUS11 KWNS 152335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152335
TXZ000-NMZ000-160100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0626
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Sat May 15 2021

Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico and West/Southwest Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173...

Valid 152335Z - 160100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 173
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
continues across WW 173.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar/satellite shows a relatively long-lived
supercell with a history of producing severe hail moving southeast
through portions of Pecos county into Terrell county in the Big Bend
region of southwest Texas. Other cells developing along high
terrain in portions of far southwest Texas into southeast New Mexico
are beginning to enter western portions of WW 173. One of these
cells produced a measured wind gust of 62 mph at the Culberson, TX,
ASOS station.

In the near term, isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will
remain the primary threat with the ongoing convective activity,
particularly as storms continue moving eastward into improving
thermodynamic conditions. Presently, SPC mesoanalysis shows MLCAPE
ranging from near 1000 J/kg in western portions of the watch area,
to near 2000 J/kg along the eastern edge, amid effective shear
values near 35 kt promoting multicell and transient supercell
structures. Thus, the severe threat is expected to continue.

To the east of WW 173, stabilizing outflow from previous convective
activity is evident in visible satellite imagery, with near 100 J/kg
of SBCIN analyzed in mesoanalysis. These observations suggest the
storm entering Terrell county may have somewhat limited aerial
extent of severe potential as it nears the southeastern edge of the
watch area. However, convective trends will continue to be monitored
closely.

With time, storms farther west may congeal into more of a linear
structure, and should this occur, the threat will transition to
primarily damaging winds through the remainder of the evening.

..Karstens.. 05/15/2021

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 32330432 33260398 33590325 33170251 32840109 31350104
30210122 29580212 28990320 29320389 30740490 32330432
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)