AXAU02 APRF 081909
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1908 UTC 08/04/2021

Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 23U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.5S
Longitude: 106.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: northeast [053 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 80 nm [150 km]

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 09/0000: 14.3S 107.3E: 035 [070]: 045 [085]: 989
+12: 09/0600: 14.6S 108.6E: 050 [090]: 045 [085]: 990
+18: 09/1200: 15.2S 110.2E: 055 [105]: 045 [085]: 990
+24: 09/1800: 16.3S 111.5E: 065 [120]: 040 [075]: 993
+36: 10/0600: 19.8S 112.3E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 993
+48: 10/1800: 24.2S 110.7E: 145 [270]: 035 [065]: 995
+60: 11/0600: : : :
+72: 11/1800: : : :
+96: 12/1800: : : :
+120: 13/1800: : : :

REMARKS:
Tropical Low 23U location was based on animated infrared and past microwave imagery around 1130UTC. Confidence in the position is fair. The system has maintained a primary convective mass on the western flank over the last several hours, with a band also developing along the southern flank.

Dvorak analysis gives a DT 3.0 from a curved band pattern. MET is 3.5 adjusted to a PAT of 3.0, FT and CI are also 3.0. CIMSS ADT CI is 2.9 and NOAA ADT has a CI of 2.8. SATCON has 44 knots [1-minute] at 1438UTC. The system has not been named a tropical cyclone based on gales unlikely to extend around more than two quadrants, with final intensity set at 40 knots though only in the western quadrants.

23U has begun to move towards the northeast in the last several hours in response to tropical cyclone Seroja to its east pushing steadily towards the southwest.

Shear remains moderate with good poleward outflow and warm sea surface temperatures [29-30C]. As 23U moves further to the northeast, it has a brief window for intensification as it becomes more exposed to the monsoon northwesterly flow. However, at the same time, it will be moving into a higher shear zone, and its increasing interaction with Seroja is likely to hamper its prospects for further development.

As 23U and TC Seroja continue to interact, 23U should start moving southeast later today then turn southward while weakening during Saturday as Seroja dominates. 23U should start moving rapidly towards the south-southwest later Saturday into Sunday under the influence of Seroja. An impact to the far northwest corner of WA coast around Exmouth is possible on Saturday with a short
period of strong to gale force winds and heavy rain even though the system should no longer be a TC. 23U is then expected to dissipate on Sunday as it gets absorbed into Seroja.


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 09/0130 UTC.
&&

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