WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27S (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 16.2S 106.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.2S 106.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 16.1S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 16.0S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 15.5S 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 15.0S 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.4S 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.3S 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 23.2S 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 106.0E.
06APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27S (TWENTYSEVEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 587 NM NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AND OVERALL
WEAKENED SYSTEM, WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED SOUTHWEST OF THE
ASSESSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 061154Z SSMIS 91GHZ
COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE CONFIRMED THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, AND SHOWED
THE LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES TO GOOD EFFECT. HOWEVER THE LLCC IS
RATHER ILL-DEFINED AND PROVIDED ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THE
SHEARED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
STARTED TO COME DOWN TO THE T2.5 (35 KTS) RANGE FROM BOTH PGTW AND
APRF, WHICH COMBINED WITH A T2.7 ADT ESTIMATE, LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY VWS BEING OFFSET BY WARM (29C)
SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS.
THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN REMAINS WEAK, BUT TC 27S IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). AFTER TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL START TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD, THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND
ULTIMATELY SOUTHWARD AS THE BINARY INTERACTION WITH TC 26S BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TC 27S WILL RAPIDLY TRANSIT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE
OR MERGE WITH TC 26S BY TAU 120. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND OUTFLOW FROM TC 26S ARE COMBINING TO
IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48, BUT ONCE THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 26S, IT
DEVELOPS A SHORT-LIVED POINT SOURCE ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 50 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER MOVING TO
THE EAST OF TC 26S BY TAU 96, THE OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT BECOMES
CONVERGENT, ALLOWING FOR RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY POOR AGREEMENT, WITH SEVERAL
CONSENSUS MEMBERS DEPICTING A SCENARIO IN WHICH TC 27S DOES NOT
INTERACT WITH TC 26S AND INSTEAD TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT OF THE COMPLEXITIES OF THE BINARY INTERACTION
FORECAST AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY DEPICTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S
(SEROJA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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