WTIO30 FMEE 071855
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/13/20202021
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.6 S / 80.6 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 18.3 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.8 S / 78.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 18.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 280 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 150 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 285 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 205 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE HABANA EYE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
DEGRADE TO EVOLVE INTO A CDO PATTERN. THE CLOUD TOPS HOWEVER CONTINUE
TO REMAIN VERY COLD IN THE NORTHERN SECTOR OF CDO WHILE THE MICROWAVE TRANSMITTED DATA FROM 1331UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
WAS STILL QUITE SYMMETRICAL. BY INERTIA AND KEEPING A DVORAK ANALYSIS
OF 5.5-, WE CAN STILL ESTIMATE WINDS OF ABOUT 85KT, LEAVING HABANA AT
THE THRESHOLD OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

AS FAR AS THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONCERNED, NO CHANGE. HABANA HAS
STARTED ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH-EAST AND WILL CONTINUE A SOUTHWARD
TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BY SLOWING DOWN. UNDER THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE,
THE TRACK WILL TAKE A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL A STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS
ON THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND AT A LONGER
RANGE. THE RSMC HAS OPTED FOR A SOUTHWARD TURN AT FRIDAY.

THE NORTHERN SHEAR SHOULD START TO WEAKEN SOON WHICH COULD HELP
HABANA TO INTENSIFY AGAIN FROM TUESDAY, ONCE HIS WESTWARD MOVEMENT
HAS STARTED. A PERSISTENT SLOWER DISPLACEMENT COULD AGAIN LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE LACK OF OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THIS
CONTEXT, REINFORCED BY THE POTENTIAL OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE PHENOMENON, THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY UNCERTAIN. ACCORDING TO THE SCENARIO OF NO
MAJOR CONSTRAINTS, THE RSMC OPTS FOR A PRESERVED INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. HABANA IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AT THE THRESHOLD OF
AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE WEAKENING MORE MARKEDLY FROM
THURSDAY ONWARDS UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE RISING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE
FRONT OF A TROUGH.

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.
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