WTIO30 FMEE 071338
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/14/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (IMAN)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7 S / 56.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/08 00 UTC: 25.7 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 85 NW: 75

24H: 2021/03/08 12 UTC: 27.8 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 35

36H: 2021/03/09 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 63.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 95 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 215 SW: 85 NW: 55

48H: 2021/03/09 12 UTC: 31.4 S / 64.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 75

60H: 2021/03/10 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 185 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 35 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 55

72H: 2021/03/10 12 UTC: 32.9 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 95 SW: 30 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 12 UTC: 34.1 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

120H: 2021/03/12 12 UTC: 36.7 S / 67.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=2.0+ CI=2.5+

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, IT SEEMS THAT THIS MORNING CENTER MOVED INTO
THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION LOOKS MORE SYMMETRICAL NOW. WITH THE LACK OF
RELEVANT DATA, INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35KT.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED
BY A MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR
FROM THE INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION MIGHT BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
ANTICYCLONE FROM THE WEST.

IN THE NEXT HOURS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR AND THE INCREASINGLY
BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH,
GALE FORCE WINDS MAY PERSIST.

FROM TONIGHT AND ONWARDS, IMAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT FOR THE
MASCARENE ARCHIPELAGO.
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