WTIO30 FMEE 070723
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/13/20202021
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 13 (HABANA)

2.A POSITION 2021/03/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 79.7 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/W 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 60 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 45

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 17.4 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

36H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 79.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 18.7 S / 78.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 205 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

60H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 195 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2021/03/10 06 UTC: 18.2 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/11 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 215 SW: 195 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2021/03/12 06 UTC: 19.1 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 100 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0-

DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, HABANA EYE PATTERN WORSENED A BIT WITH
WARMER TOPS AND A WEAKNESS IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL IN INFRARED IMAGES.
THE PRESENCE A WEAK TO MODERATE NORTH-NORTH-EATSERLY SHEAR MAY BE A
GOOD EXPLANATION OF THIS LITTLE WEAKENING. 0056Z SSMIS DATA MAY ALSO
SUGGEST THE ONSET OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. CIMSS MPERC GIVE
THIS SCENARIO A 60% PROBABILITY OF HAPPENING.

NO CHANGE IN THE PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST MADE BY THE RSMC:
HABANA IS FOLLOWING A TRACK IN A GENERAL EAST-SOUTH DIRECTION,
GRADUALLY MOVING SOUTH-EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, DRIVEN BY THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE. AT THE END OF SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN
WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE BEFORE GRADUALLY
TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH
IS RE-INFLATING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE METEOR. THERE IS STILL A
STRONG DISPERSION OF AVAILABLE MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE TURN WESTWARD AND A LONGER RANGE.

TODAY AND TOMORROW, HABANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY. SO IT IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE THAT A COOLING OF THE SST MAY OCCUR. THIS RISK ASSOCIATED
WITH A POSSIBLE ERC OR AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE SHEAR
IMPACT SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 36HOURS IS
LIKELY.

NEVERTHELESS, WITH NO MAJOR FLAW IN THE ENVIRONMENT HABANA SHOULD
MAINTAIN A STRONG INTENSITY OVER THE PERIOD ESPECIALLY AT LONGER
RANGE WHEN THE RESUMPTION OF THE WESTWARD MOTION WILL BRING IT INTO A
VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MADE UNCERTAIN BY
THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND BY THE POSSIBLE OCCURRENCE OF AN EYE
WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT CANNOT BE ANTICIPATED VERY FAR IN
ADVANCE.

DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS, HABANA DO NOT THREATEN ANY INHABITED ISLAND.
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