WTIO30 FMEE 061851
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/14/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14

2.A POSITION 2021/03/06 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 53.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/03/07 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 85 NW: 100

24H: 2021/03/07 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 100

36H: 2021/03/08 06 UTC: 26.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 95 NW: 100

48H: 2021/03/08 18 UTC: 28.7 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 230 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 95 NW: 100

60H: 2021/03/09 06 UTC: 31.6 S / 64.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 100 NW: 100

72H: 2021/03/09 18 UTC: 33.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/03/10 18 UTC: 36.2 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

IN THE LAST FEW HOURS, A CURVED BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A LOT OF
ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY HAS FORMED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE 1630Z
ASCENT SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ELONGATED AND LOCATED TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE BAND. WINDS OF 30 KT ARE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT (RELATED TO THE BAND), THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE RECLASSIFIED
AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DESPITE A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL STRUCTURE.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH-EASTWARDS AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A PASSAGE AT MORE THAN 100 KM IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF REUNION ISLAND
SUNDAY MORNING, EVEN IF MEDIUM UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT
TRACK. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE CAPTURED BY A
MID-LATITUDES TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BRING IT SOUTH OF 25S, FAR FROM THE
INHABITED ISLANDS, ALONG A SOUTH-EASTWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS
TRACK. AT THE END OF THE TAUS, THE RESIDUAL DEPRESSION MIGHT BE
TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BY THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW ANTICYCLONE FROM THE
WEST.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MIXED: IN SPITE OF AN EXCELLENT
DIVERGENCE AT THE FRONT OF THE TROUGH, THE SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN
BUT SHOULD BE COMPENSATED INITIALLY BY THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION IN
THE SAME DIRECTION. IT COULD EVENTUALLY REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE TOMORROW. BY SUNDAY BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER SHEAR AND THE INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT, THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO START ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

IN TERMS OF IMPACT FOR THE MASCARENES, INTENSE AND STORMY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THAT CAN EXCEED 100 KM/H IN GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED AT LA REUNION. A DEGRADATION OF LESSER MAGNITUDE IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IN MAURITIUS.
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