AXAU01 APRF 271324
IDW27600

TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1324 UTC 27/02/2021

Name: Tropical Cyclone Marian
Identifier: 15U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.0S
Longitude: 93.5E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [230 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots [110 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots [155 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm [185 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 130 nm [240 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 120 nm [220 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 300 nm [555 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 27/1800: 16.4S 92.7E: 035 [065]: 065 [120]: 977
+12: 28/0000: 16.8S 92.1E: 045 [085]: 070 [130]: 972
+18: 28/0600: 17.0S 91.5E: 050 [090]: 070 [130]: 972
+24: 28/1200: 17.3S 91.0E: 055 [100]: 070 [130]: 972
+36: 01/0000: 17.7S 90.1E: 060 [110]: 075 [140]: 967
+48: 01/1200: 18.1S 89.6E: 070 [130]: 075 [140]: 962
+60: 02/0000: 18.3S 89.6E: 085 [160]: 070 [130]: 967
+72: 02/1200: 18.5S 90.3E: 100 [190]: 065 [120]: 973
+96: 03/1200: 19.5S 92.7E: 135 [255]: 060 [110]: 977
+120: 04/1200: 21.0S 95.5E: 180 [330]: 050 [095]: 984
REMARKS:
Position analysed from animated VIS imagery and microwave passes around 1030Z.

SATCON estimate at 0049 UTC 70 kts 1-minute mean, with ADT indicating 59 knots while AMSU estimate is up at 85 knots 1-min.

Final intensity estimate remains steady at 60 knots [10-min].

CIMSS analysed shear at 24 knots from the east at 27/1200 UTC, consistent with previous analysis and appearance in satellite imagery. Shear appears to be mostly in the high levels [above 400hPa]. The shear is expected to persist in the short term, reducing in 12-24 hours as the system approaches 090E and the steady SW motion slows and is replaced by a track to the southeast on Tuesday. CIMSS analysis and satellite imagery indicate reasonable divergence in all sectors.

A strengthening trend is forecast due to decreasing shear but is slightly less than normal due to the environment and large size. SHIPS guidance indicates rapid intensification is unlikely which is consistent with the synoptic environment.

SST's are cooler to the south, with sub 26 degrees south of about 18S. This could limit development on Monday and then assist in the system weakening as it moves further south. The circulation is expected to remain at TC strength over open waters for the next 5-7 days.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 27/1930 UTC.
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