WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 14.8S 97.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 97.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 15.3S 94.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 15.8S 92.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.4S 91.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 17.0S 90.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 18.0S 89.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 18.7S 89.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 19.6S 91.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 96.4E.
26FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (MARIAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 167 NM
SOUTH OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DEEPENED WITH A FORMATIVE PINHOLE EYE BECOMING APPARENT AND
RAIN BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 261212Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLORIZED IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60KTS IS HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE PGTW AND
APRF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55KTS AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE ADT
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF T3.7/59KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
TO MODERATE (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
CONDUCIVE AT 28-29C. TC 22S WILL TRACK MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, THE CYCLONE
WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, AND AFTER
TAU 96, WILL RE-ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE
STR. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 85KTS BY TAU 72. AFTERWARD, INCREASING
VWS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN INTO THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY TAU 12O. INTERPOLATED
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TAU TAU 48, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF THE FORECAST; AFTERWARD,
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL TRAJECTORIES AND ALONG-
TRACK SPEEDS AS THE VORTEX NAVIGATES THE TURN AROUND THE STR AXIS,
LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
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