WTXS32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 19.4S 80.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4S 80.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 19.7S 78.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.7S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.4S 74.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.0S 72.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 18.1S 67.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 19.5S 79.8E.
13FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FARAJI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1269
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS DISPLACING FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 130407Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CORE CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS
AND LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A
BLEND OF TIGHTLY CONSTRAINED MULTI-AGENCY (PGTW AND FMEE) AND
AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES (ADT) RANGING FROM T3.0-T3.2 (45-47
KTS). A PARTIAL 130409Z ASCAT-B PASS INDICATED 35-40KT WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. TC 19S IS TRACKING WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. AS
THE STR BUILDS IN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TAKE
ON A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE, WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHWESTERLY VWS AND
CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST IMPINGING THE SECONDARY CIRCULATION. AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES MOVING WEST IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR IN
THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE PERSISTENT CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND ULTIMATE DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPREAD TO 175NM AT TAU 72,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z AND 140900Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)