WTPS21 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 179.5E TO 22.6S 179.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 081430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091500Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTPS21 PGTW 091500 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED
CORRECTED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081451ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.8S 178.9W TO 30.2S 176.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 020912Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 178.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.9S 179.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.2S 178.7W APPROXIMATELY
298 NM SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 091307Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIRLY
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101500Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED AMPN LINE.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)