WTXS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 23.8S 114.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8S 114.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 24.1S 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 24.5S 113.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 25.2S 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.3S 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.2S 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 23.9S 114.8E.
03FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 98
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A VERY COMPACT
CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A COMBINATION OF
ANALYSIS OF NEARBY SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND ANMIATED RADAR
IMAGERY FROM LEARMONTH LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION OF SURFACE OBSERVATION AND AN
UNOFFICIAL (OVERLAND) DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 FROM PGTW.
TC 18S IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND GENERALLY
REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PREVIOUS 6-12 HOURS. WHILE THE
CENTER REMAINS OVERLAND, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE, WITH LOW (10-15 KT) VWS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
THOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER (TPW) LOOP. THE DEEP STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD START TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, PUSHING TC 18S TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST, EMERGEING
OVER WATER BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
WARM (26-27C) WATERS WEST OF AUSTRALIA, IT WILL HAVE A SHORT WINDOW
WHERE VWS REMAINS IN THE LOW TO MODERATE RANGE AND IS OFFSET BY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND SHOULD PEAK AT 35 KTS BY TAU 36.
THEREAFTER, SSTS RAPIDLY DECREASE TO LESS THAN 25C WHILE VWS
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH,
SERVING TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM NO LATER THAN TAU 72. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEAR-TERM TURN
SOUTHWESTWARD, WHICH LEADS TO A BROAD SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN
THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z,
040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
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