WTPS32 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 12.1S 174.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 174.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 14.3S 177.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 17.3S 179.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 20.4S 179.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 22.8S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 12.6S 175.0E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (SIXTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
431 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER
AND OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 310504Z
SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WEST AND NORTH
QUADRANTS. THIS SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
WILL DEGRADE RAPIDLY AFTER THIS TIME DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH TC 15P. TC 16P IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH TC 15P, WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ABOUT 461NM SSE. TC 16P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF TC
15P. BY TAU 36, TC 16P WILL APPROACH TC 15P WITHIN ABOUT 140NM AS IT
RAPIDLY WEAKENS. BY TAU 48, TC 16P WILL DISSIPATE AND BECOME
ABSORBED INTO TC 15P. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. IN LIGHT OF THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE BINARY
INTERACTION, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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