WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18S (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 21.4S 121.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4S 121.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.5S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.7S 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 22.2S 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 22.8S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 22.7S 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 23.8S 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 120.6E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18S (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 394 NM EAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS
TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KTS BASED ON MULTIPLE
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 18S IS TRACKING OVER LAND
THROUGH WESTERN AUSTRALIA, HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS
OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST, IN
ADDITION TO A SECONDARY STR TO THE EAST. TC 18S IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA AND
INTENSIFY ONLY MINIMALLY TO 35 KTS BY TAU 48, AT
WHICH POINT IT WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 40 NM SOUTH OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN. WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, COUPLED WITH CONTINUED
LOW VWS AND MODERATE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KTS BY
TAU 72. THEREAFTER, MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS AND COOLER
SST WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND WITH TC 18S
TRACKING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 96 ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERALLY
WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 96 BUT DIVERGE SLIGHTLY ON THE
TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THIS GOOD
AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z,
010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 301500).//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)