WTPS33 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNING NR 003
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 13.1S 155.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 070 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1S 155.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 13.5S 158.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 14.6S 161.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 16.1S 164.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 17.8S 166.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.8S 167.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.8S 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.6S 166.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 156.0E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (LUCAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
806 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL CLOUD
LINES AND SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND
VIA EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION EVIDENT
IN THE WINDFIELD FROM 310951Z ASCAT-A DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 55 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), A CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 AND
A 311103Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 56 KTS.
TC LUCAS IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH VERY WARM
(29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. THESE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR
TERM AND RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 80 KTS BY TAU 24. THEREAFTER,
INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE SYSTEM
BEGINS A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUCAS
WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTHWARD TRACK AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR
AXIS. HIGH (25-30 KTS) VWS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DURING
THIS TIME. BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL ROUND THE STR AXIS AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO HIGH VWS AND COOLING SST WHICH WILL LEAD
TO FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS MODEL
TRACKS DIVERGE TO A MAXIMUM 335 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96. THE
GFS, ECMWF AND NAVGEM MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDE TRACKS THAT BRING THE
VORTEX OVER NEW CALEDONIA WHILE THE UKMET AND GALWEM GUIDANCE LIES TO
THE EAST, RESULTING IN A TRACK THAT DOES NOT BRING THE SYSTEM CENTER
OVER LAND. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 15
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
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