ACUS11 KWNS 311012
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311012
VAZ000-WVZ000-311615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0049
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 AM CST Sun Jan 31 2021

Areas affected...Virginia...Southeast West Virginia...

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 311012Z - 311615Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will likely develop across parts of southeast
West Virginia and Virginia this morning. A mixture of freezing rain,
sleet and snow will be likely across parts of far southern West
Virginia and southern Virginia this morning.

DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a band of moderate
to heavy precipitation spreading east-northeastward across parts of
the southern Appalachians. This band is being supported by a
shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. In advance of the
shortwave trough, warm advection and isentropic lift is maximized
across parts of the southern Appalachians according to short-term
model solutions. This area of strong lift is forecast to move
eastward across Virginia this morning. Temperatures are now below
freezing across most of Virginia with profiles supporting snow
across the northern two-thirds of the state. In response, a band of
moderate to heavy snowfall with maximized rates in the 1 to 1.5
inches per hour range, is expected to develop over the next 2 to 4
hours in a corridor about 100 statute miles wide, from near Beckley,
West Virginia eastward to near Lynchburg, Virginia. This band of
moderate to heavy snowfall could affect areas as far east as
Richmond, Virginia later this morning.

Further to the south, forecast soundings suggest a warm layer is
present near 850 mb. This warm layer will keep precipitation in a
mixed state with freezing rain, sleet and snow all possible this
morning. The corridor with the greatest potential for mixed
precipitation is forecast to be south of Blacksburg and Roanoke to
near the Virginia state-line.

..Broyles.. 01/31/2021

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...

LAT...LON 38747912 38648017 38498075 38188104 37538142 37028152
36778148 36668130 36638082 36657921 36817762 37347717
37927707 38277716 38487741 38677781 38737841 38747912
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