WTXS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 87.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 87.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.5S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 86.5E.
28JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
925 SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RAGGED AND FULLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEAK,
FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED 130NM+ TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
LLC IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH THE WEAK BUT
DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 272212Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25KTS IS BASED ON THE SATCON ADT
ESTIMATE OF 25KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DEGRADED EIR
SATELLITE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE CYCLONE IS UNDER 25KT+ OF RELATIVE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS
THE STORM MOTION HAS BECOME 90DEG OUT-OF-PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL WIND FLOW. ADDITIONALLY, OUTFLOW IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. TC 13S HAS FALLEN TO
BELOW THE JTWC WARNING INTENSITY CRITERIA OF 35KTS AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER. THE REMNANTS WILL PROPAGATE WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, BY TAU
72, AS IT DRIFTS INTO WARMER SST (28C), THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 10 FEET.//
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