WTXS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 19.2S 93.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 93.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.4S 92.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 19.4S 89.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 19.1S 87.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 18.6S 83.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.3S 76.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.1S 69.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.9S 63.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 93.4E.
26JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
2065 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 261221Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED
CENTER WITH LIMITED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS HEDGED ABOVE THE PGTW CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.0(30 KNOTS) BASED ON A 261200Z ADT ESTIMATE
OF 2.5(35 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MARGINAL
SST VALUES (26C) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC 13S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 13S IS EXPECTED TO STRUGGLE UNDER
MARGINAL CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
ABLE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS SST
VALUES (28-29C) WARM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS
13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z AND 271500Z.//
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