WTIO30 FMEE 241235
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 36/7/20202021
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.1 S / 29.5 E
(TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
TWENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/25 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 26.9 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

24H: 2021/01/25 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 24.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ELOISE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND. THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED IN THE
NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH AFRICA. EVEN IF IT NOT SO DEEP, CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT NEAR THE CENTER.

NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK: THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK MOVING ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR. THEREAFTER, ELOISE
WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BOTSWANA

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THE MAIN RISK IS RELATED TO THE HEAVY RAINS.
THIS RISK CONCERNS ON THE ONE HAND BOTSWANA IN DIRECT LINK WITH THE
REMAINS OF ELOISE FROM TOMORROW UP TO TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ON THE
OTHER HAND THE NORTH-EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH AFRICA, ESWATINI AND
SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE. UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT,
HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF THE DEPRESSION ON TERRE ELOISE
WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS UP TO TUESDAY. 100MM ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER
2 TO 3 DAYS AND LOCALLY 200 TO 300MM ARE POSSIBLE.

THE INHABITANTS OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE
INSTRUCTIONS OF THE LOCAL AUTHORITIES.CONCERNED BY THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINS IN THE COMING DAYS
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