From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Thursday, January 21, 2021 16:03:00
AXAU01 APRF 211905
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 21/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 119.8E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/0000: 18.1S 119.9E: 055 [105]: 035 [065]: 992
+12: 22/0600: 18.7S 120.0E: 070 [125]: 035 [065]: 990
+18: 22/1200: 19.2S 120.3E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 987
+24: 22/1800: 19.7S 120.8E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 23/0600: 20.9S 122.1E: 095 [180]: 035 [065]: 987
+48: 23/1800: 22.3S 123.7E: 115 [210]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 24/0600: 23.6S 125.3E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 24/1800: 24.9S 127.3E: 140 [265]: 030 [055]: 996
+96: 25/1800: 26.5S 132.7E: 175 [330]: 025 [045]: 999
+120: 26/1800: 28.1S 136.9E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
The system has been difficult to locate for the past 6 hours. IR imagery shows convection is still forming near the centre but there appears to be little real curvature to the convection with a sharp edge along the convective blow up indicating the system is still suffering under northerly shear.
Dvorak analysis leans heavily on MET/PAT with FT remaining at 2.0. FInal intensity estimate is 35 knots with gales restricted to southern quadrants.
The system is in a moist environment and over very warm SSTs. Upper divergence is strong to the south but weak to non existant equatorward. Development has thus far been constrained by wind shear. Shear may weaken a little during Friday
as the system moves around the western flank of an upper anticyclone before experiencing increasing northwesterly winds aloft as an upper trough approaches.
There is decresing time for this system to develop before making landfall and the forecast now peaks intensity at 45 knots.
Deterministic [hi-res] model runs are in close agreement regarding track, which is dominated by the anticyclone to the east and the approaching mid-latitude upper trough. There is greater divergence in track amongst ensemble members.
Models indicate the system remains coherent for some time and can be tracked well into central parts of Australia.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC.
From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Thursday, January 21, 2021 16:03:00
AXAU01 APRF 211905
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1905 UTC 21/01/2021
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 08U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 119.8E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: south [180 deg]
Speed of Movement: 9 knots [17 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm [75 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm [185 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/0000: 18.1S 119.9E: 055 [105]: 035 [065]: 992
+12: 22/0600: 18.7S 120.0E: 070 [125]: 035 [065]: 990
+18: 22/1200: 19.2S 120.3E: 075 [140]: 040 [075]: 987
+24: 22/1800: 19.7S 120.8E: 085 [155]: 045 [085]: 984
+36: 23/0600: 20.9S 122.1E: 095 [180]: 035 [065]: 987
+48: 23/1800: 22.3S 123.7E: 115 [210]: 030 [055]: 993
+60: 24/0600: 23.6S 125.3E: 130 [235]: 030 [055]: 995
+72: 24/1800: 24.9S 127.3E: 140 [265]: 030 [055]: 996
+96: 25/1800: 26.5S 132.7E: 175 [330]: 025 [045]: 999
+120: 26/1800: 28.1S 136.9E: 200 [370]: 025 [045]: 998
REMARKS:
The system has been difficult to locate for the past 6 hours. IR imagery shows convection is still forming near the centre but there appears to be little real curvature to the convection with a sharp edge along the convective blow up indicating the system is still suffering under northerly shear.
Dvorak analysis leans heavily on MET/PAT with FT remaining at 2.0. FInal intensity estimate is 35 knots with gales restricted to southern quadrants.
The system is in a moist environment and over very warm SSTs. Upper divergence is strong to the south but weak to non existant equatorward. Development has thus far been constrained by wind shear. Shear may weaken a little during Friday
as the system moves around the western flank of an upper anticyclone before experiencing increasing northwesterly winds aloft as an upper trough approaches.
There is decresing time for this system to develop before making landfall and the forecast now peaks intensity at 45 knots.
Deterministic [hi-res] model runs are in close agreement regarding track, which is dominated by the anticyclone to the east and the approaching mid-latitude upper trough. There is greater divergence in track amongst ensemble members.
Models indicate the system remains coherent for some time and can be tracked well into central parts of Australia.Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/0130 UTC.