• Indian-S: I92S Formation

    From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wednesday, January 20, 2021 17:10:00
    WTXS22 PGTW 201500
    MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
    SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
    REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
    AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 201500)//
    RMKS/
    1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
    160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.7E TO 16.8S 119.2E
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
    ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
    WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
    IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
    NEAR 13.7S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
    KNOTS.
    2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
    NEAR 13.2S 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
    265NM NNW OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
    IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
    CENTER (LLCC). A 201200Z DIRECT ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30KT WINDS
    WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION
    TO THE SOUTH HAS HIGHER WINDS (35-40KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<10 KTS)
    VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S
    WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM
    SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
    LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
    THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
    HOURS IS HIGH.
    3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
    211500Z.
    4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
    LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E.//
    NNNN
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