From Weather Alert@21:1/175 to All on Wednesday, January 20, 2021 17:10:00
WTXS22 PGTW 201500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 201500)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 122.7E TO 16.8S 119.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 201200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.7S 121.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 122.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 121.4E, APPROXIMATELY
265NM NNW OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 201200Z DIRECT ASCAT-A IMAGE DEPICTS 25-30KT WINDS
WRAPPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC WHILE DEEPER CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTH HAS HIGHER WINDS (35-40KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (31-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S
WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND STRENGTHENS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211500Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.1S 99.3E.//
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