WTIO30 FMEE 190005
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 8 (JOSHUA)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/19 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 84.4 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

24H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 79.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
DISSIPATING





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=NIL

NO SURPRISE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, ALTITUDE SHEAR AND DRY AIR
PREVENT THE RETURN OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOSHUA. UNDER
THESE CONDITIONS, THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 25KT,
LOCALLY 30KT IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM.

JOSHUA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD CAUGHT
IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

THIS IS THE LAST BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM.
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