WTIO30 FMEE 181423 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
CORRECTIVE ABOUT TAU48
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4 S / 54.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 370 SW: 390 NW: 390
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 185 NW: 185

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/19 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 140

24H: 2021/01/19 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100

36H: 2021/01/20 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 215 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 30 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2021/01/20 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 47.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

60H: 2021/01/21 00 UTC: 17.2 S / 45.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

72H: 2021/01/21 12 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 110

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/22 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 400 SW: 215 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 35

120H: 2021/01/23 12 UTC: 22.4 S / 36.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 415 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 30 SW: 50 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0-

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING
THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF THE LAST
SCATSAT DATA AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, AT THE SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF
THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS VIGOROUS OVERNIGHT
WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND BURST OF LIGHTNING.
THE INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LAST SCATSAT DATA AND DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES.

INCREASING THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS
THE SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY REDUCED THE IMPACT OF THE SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM,
ALLOWING A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.
FROM MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN
THE UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED
BY SOME MODELS. THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION
IS LOW.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN PHASE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH LESS LIKELY BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE.

KEY MESSAGES ON ASSOCIATED HAZARDS OVER MADAGASCAR:

-HEAVY RAINS: THIS IS THE MAIN DANGER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE EAST COAST
OF MADAGASCAR LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, RAINFALL AMOUNT OF 200 TO 300 MM/24H OR
EVEN 400 MM LOCALLY ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE LANDING ZONE, I.E. IN THE
REGIONS SURROUNDING THE BAY OF ANTONGIL.
THOSE HEAVY RAINS WILL THEN SPREAD ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INLAND
ALONG ELOISE'S TRACK AND OVER LARGE PART OF NORTH-WESTERN REGIONS OF MADAGASCAR, WHERE THE PASSAGE OF ELOISE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE
MONSOON RAINS. GENERALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNT UP TO 100 MM / 24H ARE
EXPECTED ON THESE AREAS REACHING MORE THAN 200 MM / 24H IN SOME
PLACES.
THESE HEAVY RAINS CAN GENERATE FLASH FLOODS, WIDESPREAD FLOODINGS AND LANDSLIDES.

- STRONG WINDS: THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK OF STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H THAT CAN CAUSE DAMAGE TO LIFE AND PROPERTIES.
THESE STRONG WINDS COULD START TO REACH THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OR TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA
DEPENDING ON THE FINAL SYSTEM INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.

- WAVE AND STORM SURGE: THE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, VERY
MODERATE AT LEAST INITIALLY AT 2M50-3M, WILL START TO AFFECT PORTION
OF COASTAL REGIONS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE ASSOCIATED
UNCERTAINTIES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING IS BASED
ON STORM SURGE OF LESS THAN 1M ALONG THE POTENTIAL LANDFALL AREA.
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