WTIO30 FMEE 171901
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ELOISE)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 59.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 425 SW: 425 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.9 S / 56.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 305 SW: 295 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.6 S / 54.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 240 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 295 SW: 240 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 75 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 51.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 65 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/20 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 250 SW: 415 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 30 SW: 35 NW: 45

72H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.0 S / 47.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.5 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 500 SW: 415 NW: 240

120H: 2021/01/22 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 39.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 520 SW: 415 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 270 SE: 335 SW: 295 NW: 130

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5;CI=2.5

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED SHEARED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A
CENTER, LOCATED WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY, AT THE
SOUTH-EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. IN THE ABSENCE OF
OBJECTIVE DATA, THE INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH
DVORAK'S SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES BUT BELOW THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WHICH
ARE AT 40-45 KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
AMBIVALENT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OMNIPRESENT WITH
MID-TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
CIRCULATION, WHILE THE UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS GOOD IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. FROM
MONDAY EVENING, THE SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD EASE OFF, FIRST IN THE
UPPER LEVELS THEN AT THE MID-LEVELS. CONSEQUENTLY, THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ELOISE COULD ACCELERATE BEFORE LADNFALL AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS
(HWRF, ARPEGE, UKMO). THE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUTROPICAL RIDGE. TUESDAY,
THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH WILL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE
RIDGE AND COULD DRIVE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD INFLECTION OF THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS BACK UP AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY WHICH
SOULD PREVENT ELOISE FROM SIGNIFICANTLY DIVING SOUTHWARDS. THE EURO
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DISPERSION IS WEAKER THAN NORMAL,
WHICH YIELDS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EASTERN MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE
NORTH AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY REMAINS A REAL POSSIBILITY.

LATE THURSDAY, ELOISE SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA ON THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL. A NEW INTENSIFICATION PHASE IS AWAITED WITHIN CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
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