WTIO30 FMEE 161838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20202021
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7

2.A POSITION 2021/01/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 64.3 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 185 NW: 230

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/17 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 35

24H: 2021/01/17 18 UTC: 13.2 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 250 SW: 250 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 45 SE: 150 SW: 100 NW: 35

36H: 2021/01/18 06 UTC: 13.5 S / 56.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95

48H: 2021/01/18 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 54.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 120

60H: 2021/01/19 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 52.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2021/01/19 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/20 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 47.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION

120H: 2021/01/21 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 43.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 315 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED WITH
RATHER COLD TOPS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INCREASED IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT. 1645Z ASCAT SWATH DO NOT SHOW WIND RACHING GLAE FORCE IN
THE WESTERN SEMI-CRICRLE. INTENSITY IS THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT 30KT.

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MIXED.
THE LOW LEVELS CONVERGENCE ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE WILL IMPROVE,
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL REMAIN OMNIPRESENT WITH MID
TROPOSPHERE DRY AIR LOCATED IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION.
THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE REMAINS EXCELLENT IN THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. THE DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS LOW.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO MID SUBTROPICAL LOW RIDGE WHICH
REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MASCARENES ISLANDS UNTIL MONDAY. AT THE END OF
THIS PERIOD, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR,
AND CAUSES A WEAKNESS IN THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT. THE TRACK THEN TAKES
AN INFLECTION IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO
LAND ON THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT LOCATION AND INTENSITY AT LANDFALL BUT
THERE IS A RISK OF STRONG WINDS, FLOODS AND STORM SURGE OVER SOME
COASTAL AREAS OF EAST MADAGASCAR MAINLY BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH
AND TAMATAVE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL AT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
IS POSSIBLE.
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