AXAU01 APRF 161323
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1323 UTC 16/01/2021
Name: Tropical Cyclone Joshua
Identifier: 07U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.1S
Longitude: 92.0E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [245 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [16 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 40 knots [75 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Central Pressure: 992 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 80 nm [150 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1002 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 16/1800: 17.3S 91.4E: 045 [085]: 040 [075]: 991
+12: 17/0000: 17.6S 90.8E: 060 [105]: 045 [085]: 988
+18: 17/0600: 17.9S 90.0E: 065 [120]: 045 [085]: 989
+24: 17/1200: 18.3S 89.4E: 075 [135]: 050 [095]: 984
+36: 18/0000: 18.8S 88.0E: 085 [160]: 050 [095]: 984
+48: 18/1200: 19.0S 86.5E: 105 [195]: 040 [075]: 991
+60: 19/0000: 19.0S 84.8E: 120 [220]: 035 [065]: 995
+72: 19/1200: 19.0S 82.5E: 130 [245]: 035 [065]: 995
+96: 20/1200: 20.6S 77.3E: 165 [310]: 035 [065]: 995
+120: 21/1200: 23.0S 73.6E: 195 [355]: 035 [065]: 993
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Joshua has had deep convection over the low level circulation in the past 12 hours after previously being hampered by easterly shear. The improved structure has been recently offset by cloud top warming, but this may be transient as convection redevelops in the diurnally favourable period overnight.

Intensity of 40kn based upon Dvorak CI of 3.0, based primarily upon MET [DT unclear] and previous scatterometry evidence of gales in western sectors. SATCON estimates are slightly higher at 45kn [adjusted 10min].

An upper trough to the south is assisting intensification with CIMSS analyses indicating strong outflow poleward and low to moderate easterly winds shear.

Short term intensification is expected despite only marginally favourable SSTs of 27-28C and has deep moist air surrounding the centre. Recent model guidance has reduced the amount of intensification and weakens the system within 48 hours, although gales may continue is southern sectors.

The upper trough has weakened the influence of the steering mid-level ridge allowing a more southwest track recently but a more west southwest track is expected to resume with 12-24 hours as that trough passes to the east.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/1930 UTC.
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