WTIO30 FMEE 091258 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 37/6/20202021
1.A REMNANT LOW 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/09 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.0 S / 63.2 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/10 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 61.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

24H: 2021/01/10 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2021/01/11 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 0

48H: 2021/01/11 12 UTC: 20.2 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 370 SW: 185 NW: 0

60H: 2021/01/12 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 54.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 280 SW: 110 NW: 0

72H: 2021/01/12 12 UTC: 20.9 S / 53.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
THE POSITION OF THE CENTRE IS NOW WELL DEFINED, WITH A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS REFORMING BY PUFFS FAR FROM THE CENTRE
WITHIN A LINE OF CONVERGENCE WHICH APPROACHES THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUE,
WHEREAS THE CENTRE IS PASSING CLOSE TO 200KM TO THE NORTH.
THE LATEST ASCAT DATA OF THIS MORNING MAINTAIN NEAR GALE FORCE ONLY
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM WAS DOWNGRADED TO RESIDUAL
DEPRESSION AT 30 KT.

NO CHANGE IN FORECAST: DANILO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARDS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
TOWARDS THE MASCARENES ISLANDS. THIS TRACK SHOULD LEAD DANILO TO PASS
CLOSE TO THE NORTH OR OVER THE MAURITIUS ISLAND AND THEN LA REUNION
BETWEEN SUNDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCES HAS TENDED TO SLOW DOWN THE OVERALL TIMING AND TO TAKE A
MORE ZONAL OPTION AFTER THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECAST: IN THE SHORT TERM, THE VERY DEGRADED
STATE OF DANIELO'S CIRCULATION AND THE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR AN IMMEDIATE NTENSIFICATION.
HOWEVER, FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, DANILO WILL BE ABLE TO BENEFIT FROM A
GOOD UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE POLEWARDS, IN FRONT OF AN UPPER LEVELS
TROUGH AND A POSSIBLE BETTER WET FEED IN THE LOW LAYERS, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ONE. THE MAJORITY OF GUIDEBOOKS AND MEMBERS OF THE OVERALL
FORECAST OF THE EUROPEAN CENTRE ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
DEVELOPMENT THIS HYPOTHESIS.
IN THE NIGHT FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY, THE UPPER LEVELS DIVERGENCE TO
THE SOUTH DISAPPEARS. DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW
LAYERS AND WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE DRY IN THE MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE, THE DEFINITIVE CYCLOLYSIS OF THIS SYSTEM, IF IT DOES NOT
OCCUR BEFORE, SHOULD TAKE PLACE BETWEEN LA REUNION AND MADAGASCAR.

IN TERMS OF IMPACTS, THIS WEEKEND, DANILO WILL THEREFORE PASS CLOSE
TO THE MASCARENES. A DETERIORATION OF THE METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED FROM EAST TO WEST, ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.

- FOR THE ISLAND OF RODRIGUES, THE DEGRADATION SHOULD WIN TODAY AND
CONTINUE NEXT NIGHT. NO REALLY REMARKABLE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BUT
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS THAT COULD EXCEED 50 MM
OVER 24 HOURS.

- AS FAR AS THE MAURITIUS- LA REUNION SECTOR IS CONCERNED, THE TIMING
OF THE PASSAGE CLOSE TO OR EVEN ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN SUNDAY (ARRIVAL IN MAURITIUS) AND TUESDAY (AWAY FROM LA
REUNION). WE INVITE THE POPULATIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TO KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH WEATHER FORECASTS THROUGH THEIR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
SERVICE.
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