WTIO30 FMEE 031237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/6/20202021
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/03 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.9 S / 74.3 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 989 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 185
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 65

24H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 75 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 75

36H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 75

48H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.2 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 65

60H: 2021/01/06 00 UTC: 16.2 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 95

72H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 350 SW: 250 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 215 SW: 185 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 130 SW: 205 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100

120H: 2021/01/08 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 63.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 150 SW: 65 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 95 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

DURING THE LAST HOURS, THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED WITH CLOUD TOPS REMAINING QUITE COLD.
THE LAST SATELLITE WIND DATA ASCAT-A OF 03H30UTC AND 05UTC CONFIRM
THE PRESENCE OF WINDS OF AROUND 50KT IN THE NORTH-EAST QUADRANT. THE
EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LAST FEW HOURS MARKS THE BEGINNING OF THE
INTERACTION PERIOD WITH THE 05 SYSTEM CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTH,
WHICH IN TURN TRACKS WESTWARD.
THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA AMSR2 OF 08H30UTC SHOW A SLIGHT TILDE TOWARDS
THE WEST, RESULTING FROM AN EAST-SOUTH-EAST CONSTRAINT OF AROUND
15/20KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA.


THE INTERACTION WITH THE 05 SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY INFLECT THE
SOUTHEASTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF DALINO REINFORCED BY THE GROWING
INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE PRESENT
IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM, DANILO WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD.
FROM MONDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS:
NORTHWEST FLOW LINKED TO THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW
LINKED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO WILL SLOW DOWN ITS TRACK.
FROM TUESDAY, FOLLOWING THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE,
DANILO COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTWARD SHIFT ON THE NORTH FACE OF THE
HIGH SUBTROPICAL GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT
VERY FAVOURABLE TO INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS, WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN MID TROPOSPHERE CONSTRAINT, ASSOCIATED WITH A DRY
ENVIRONMENT FAVOURING DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE CIRCULATION.
DANILO SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REMAIN AT THE STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM DURING THIS PERIOD.
FROM THURSDAY, WITH THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM UNDER THE EFFECT
OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, DANILO SHOULD FIND MORE FAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION (LOW SHEAR BELOW THE
HIGH RIDGE).


ALTHOUGH THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCES START ON THIS WESTWARD TRACK
SCENARIO,THERE IS STILL GREAT VARIABILITY FROM ONE RUN TO ANOTHER.
THERE IS STILL A STRONG UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHICH COULD BE LESS DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND THE TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE PRESENT FORECAST
PRESENTS AN ADVANTAGEOUS SCENARIO FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF DANILO.
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