WTIO30 FMEE 021248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/6/20202021
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DANILO)

2.A POSITION 2021/01/02 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8 S / 72.3 E
(TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 370
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2021/01/03 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 215 SW: 230 NW: 305
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 155

24H: 2021/01/03 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 295
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 155

36H: 2021/01/04 00 UTC: 14.8 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 155

48H: 2021/01/04 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 360 SE: 285 SW: 230 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 155 SW: 175 NW: 155

60H: 2021/01/05 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 315 SW: 230 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 175 SW: 195 NW: 155

72H: 2021/01/05 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 380 SE: 335 SW: 230 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 205 SW: 215 NW: 155

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2021/01/06 12 UTC: 16.1 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 400 SE: 380 SW: 260 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 75

120H: 2021/01/07 12 UTC: 16.0 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 435 SW: 295 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 220 SE: 285 SW: 285 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 100 SW: 120 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5-

THE CENTER OF DANILO REMAINS COVERED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH VERY COLD TOPS DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE PHASE OF THE
DIURNAL CYCLE OF OCEANIC CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW AT
45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE (SATCON, ADT) WHICH
ARE NOW NEAR 45/50 KT. THE SSMI OF 1133Z SHOWS THAT A MIS LEVELS EYE,
SLIGHTLY TILTED TO THE NORTHWEST, HAS APPEARED.

DANILO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVERALL TODAY. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
WEST-TO-NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE
FUJIWHARA EFFECT WITH THE 05 SYSTEM, DANILO SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM DANILO WILL
TAKE OVER WHILE SYSTEM 05 WILL EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR IN ITS
CIRCULATION.

EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF SYSTEM 05 DISAPPEARS, THE
MOVEMENT SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
SEVERAL OPPOSING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS: NORTHWEST FLOW RELATED TO THE
EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST FLOW RELATED TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE, THE SYSTEM COULD RESUME A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION ON THE NORTH
FACE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER IN THE
VERY SHORT TERM. BY THE END OF NEXT NIGHT, THE UNFAVORABLE
INTERACTION WITH SYSTEM 05 AND THE PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVELS
NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT ASSOCIATED WITH DRY AIR, COULD WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM. THEREAFTER, AFTER THE PROBABLE DISAPPEARANCE OF SYSTEM 5,
DANILO COULD BENEFIT FROM MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING
(LOW SHEAR BELOW THE UPPER RIDGE).

SINCE THE 06Z RUN, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO HAS INCREASED
SINCE IT IS SUGGESTED BY ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCES AND A LARGE NUMBER OF
MEMBERS OF THE EPS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. NEVERTHELESS,
CONSIDERING THE COMPLEXITY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION, THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS FORECAST REMAINS IMPORTANT.
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