WTPS12 NFFN 192100
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B27 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Dec 192025 UTC.

FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE YASA CENTRE 998HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9S
177.9W AT 191800 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 7 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE UPTO
35 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS.

ORGANISATION POOR. LLCC EXPOSED AND SHEARED FROM CONVECTIVE CLOUD.
FORMER TC YASA LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
IN A MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING HIGH
SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. FORMER TC
YASA IS BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS
UPTO 500HPA. SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS MOVE IT
IN A SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH DT OF 2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON
PT. THUS, YIELDING
T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 200600 UTC NEAR 23.9S 178.4W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH
30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 201800 UTC NEAR 24.8S 178.9W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH
30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 210600 UTC NEAR 25.9S 179.5W MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH
30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 211800 UTC NEAR 26.8S 180.0 MOV SSW AT 05 KT WITH
30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ISSUED FOR FORMER
TC YASA.
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