WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.1S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.2S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 177.8W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGH VWS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL ON TC 05P, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FLARING CONVECTION NOW BEING
SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION IN A 190912Z ASCAT-B PASS AND A WELL DEFINED LOW
EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 191050Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ASCAT PASS INDICATING 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. TC O5P IS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE LEVEL
OF THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AFTER THE SYSTEM
BECOMES DECAPITATED DUE TO THE HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A FINGER OF
THE JET STREAM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY TAU
36, TC 05P WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH, AND
COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST;
HOWEVER, THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR MOVEMENT
TOWARDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MOVEMENT, THE
JTWC TRACK LIES TO THE EAST OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AT TAU 12,
THEN HUGS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
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