WTPN21 PGTW 182030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.5N 123.7E TO 10.4N 116.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 182000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7N 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.8N 126.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY
311NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181736Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 99W IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SST (28-29C), MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AS IT BEGINS TO TAP
INTO A NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
192030Z.//
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