WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 168.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 168.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.5S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 168.3W.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
173 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC ZAZU HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) AND A
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.6 (57 KTS). TC 06P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (50+ KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12, TC ZAZU WILL
COMPLETE ETT AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS
IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN
PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
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