WTXS21 PGTW 082130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7S 120.6E TO 19.6S 121.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 120.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S), PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 118.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 120.8E, APPROXIMATELY 81
NM WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081707Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LLCC. INVEST 99S IS IN A
MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-
20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
99S WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER AUSTRALIA
AROUND TAU 12. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28
TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092130Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.11-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTXS21 PGTW 162200 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/162059Z JAN 20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 162100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.5S 64.8E TO 13.4S 58.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 161800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.5S 64.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 67.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6S 65.2E, APPROXIMATELY 532
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 161438Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. INVEST
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
ROBUST WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY STRONG (35-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
172100Z.//
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED LOCATION INFORMATION IN PARA.
2.
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)

WTXS21 PGTW 031400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 124.6E TO 11.3S 122.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 123.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0S 122.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 123.8E, APPROXIMATELY
209 NM NORTH OF BROWSE ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031054Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION CIRCLING A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. A 031150Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS
REVEALS A TIGHT LLCC WITH A SMALL, BUT ENHANCED, WIND FIELD OF 20 TO
30 KNOTS WITH A COUPLE 35 KNOT WIND BARBS TO THE NORTH. 99S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 99S
WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUASISTATIONARY WITH SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT BEFORE TURNING 180 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST IN AROUND 18 TO
24 HOURS. IN THAT TIME, 99S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY; HOWEVER,
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING WITH THE MAJORITY PREDICTING 99S REACHING
WARNING THRESHOLD IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS, WHILE ECMWF, THE ONLY
OUTLIER, PREDICTS A QUICKER INTENSIFICATION, REACHING WARNING
THRESHOLD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
041400Z.//
NNNN
--- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)