WTXS22 PGTW 070530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070321ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.4S 107.9E TO 13.6S 111.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6S 108.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.9S 106.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 108.0E, APPROXIMATELY 279
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 070231Z METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT (2-DEGREE DIAMETER) SYSTEM
WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. A 070233Z ASCAT-B IMAGE DEPICTS
AN ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH 30-35KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96S IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL INTENSIFY AND
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080530Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 82.8E.//
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WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 12.2S 72.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 288
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010159Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020300Z.
//
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