WTIO32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 9.8N 83.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.8N 83.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.1N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.5N 81.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.1N 80.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 11.9N 79.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.3N 77.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 9.9N 83.0E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 824
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING DIRECTLY OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE
LLCC. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO RECENT USABLE MICROWAVE
PASSES TO HELP DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC LENDING FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF 29-30C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS,
ALIGNING WITH THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
AND A 1621Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS. TC 04B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU
24, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE
TROUGH DIGS INTO INDIA. CONSEQUENTLY, TC 04B WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT LENDING MODERATE CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. DESPITE A SLOW START, TC O4B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY
TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS BY TAU 36 DUE PRIMARILY TO THE VERY
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48 AND WILL WEAKEN TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS
TIME DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN
AFTER MAKING LANDFALL AND TRACKING INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TC 04B MAY TRACK
OVER THE ARABIAN SEA, HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW PROBABILITY OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 15 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNINGS (WTIO31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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