WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 50.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 50.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.3N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.4N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.5N 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.2N 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 50.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS NOW MADE LANDFALL AND MOVED
APPROXIMATELY 20NM INLAND BY THE 221800Z HOUR, BUT HAS RETAINED A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS STRENGTH AS THE VORTEX DEGRADES.
ANIMIATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
WITH THE CONVECTION WARMING AND BEING SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO INCREASED DRAG ON THE LLCC DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER
DATA, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE PGTW FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT A GENEROUS 70 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MEASUREMENTS, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN
EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL OF A 20 KNOT DECAY OVER SIX HOURS AFTER
LANDFALL. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECAY OVER THE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 18, AND THE STAYS OVER WATER THROUGH
TAU 48, REINTENIFYING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24, WHILE THE
GFS INDICATES THE VORTEX TURNING SHARPLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATING ALONG
THE EAST COAST BY TAU 36. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
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