WTIO30 FMEE 170617
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/1/20202021
1.A FILLING UP 1 (ALICIA)

2.A POSITION 2020/11/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9 S / 71.8 E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/3.0/W 2.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/11/17 18 UTC: 18.3 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/11/18 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/11/18 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 68.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/11/19 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 66.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
60H: 2020/11/19 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW
72H: 2020/11/20 06 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0- CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, DRY AIR COVERED THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND NO
CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. 0314Z ASCAT
SWATH SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 30 KT AND NO GALE FORCE WINDS. THE RSMC
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS BASED ON THIS SCATT OBSERVATION DATA
RATHER THAN THE DVORAK ANALYSIS, WHICH OVERESTIMATES THE INTENSITY IN
THIS RAPID WEAKENING CASE.

ALICIA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN OVER THE LAST HOURS, AS THE
STEERING FLOW IS COMING DOWN IN THE LOW-LEVELS. TODAY, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD STILL TRACK SOUTH-WESTWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER, FROM TOMORROW, A HIGH PRESSURE CELL IN THE SOUTH SHOULD
BLOCK ITS DESCENT. THUS, THE REMAININGS OF ALICIA ARE EXPECTED TO
DRIFT WESTWARD AT FIRST, BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MODEL DISPERSION IS QUITE HIGH BUT ALL SHARE THE SAME
PHILOSOPHY. THE RSMC TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON AN IFS/GFS CONSENSUS.

ALICIA CONTINUES ON ITS RAPID WEAKENING PHASE. THERE IS NO MORE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL. THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY BUT IS INCREASING
AGAIN AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO REINTENSIFICATION IS AWAITED,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP ON SLOWLY FILLING UP.

THIS IS THE LAST WARNING CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM, EXCEPT
REINTENSIFICATION.
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