WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PERAL HARBOR HI/130921ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 6.5S 81.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 6.5S 81.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 8.1S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 10.0S 77.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 12.3S 75.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.4S 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 17.2S 73.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.2S 72.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.6S 71.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 6.9S 81.0E.
13NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 537
NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DISORGANIZED, DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM
HAS STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IN THE EIR LOOP HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ASSOCIATED 35 KT
WINDS IN A 131510Z METOP-A IMAGE AND ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW) AND T2.5 (35 KTS, FMEE).
TC ALICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) (>20
KILOJOULES PER SQUARE CENTIMETER). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS FURTHER
INDICATES STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST
OF THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS STEERING RIDGE, TC ALICIA WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 48 AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 70 KTS BY THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE VWS, SST AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT TO A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.
ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO
A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO 65 KTS BY TAU 72 AND 55 KTS BY
TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE SST WILL
BECOME COOL (< 26 CELSIUS) AND UNFAVORABLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED FALLING TO 35 KTS BY THIS TIME. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS INITIALLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A
MAXIMUM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS OF 130 NM AT THIS TIME.
THIS SPREAD INCREASES AS TRACK GUIDANCE BIFURCATES WITH ACROSS TRACK
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASING TO 472 NM BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
140900Z AND 142100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 130930).//
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