428
WTNT34 KNHC 091756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
please monitor products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by satellites and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude
24.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in
forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little
overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
will continue to move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida
today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
through Wednesday.

Data from a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission and
Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected today and tonight. Some slight strengthening is
forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from
the aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the
Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the
next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for
central Florida.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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