642
WTNT34 KNHC 052053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba
should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm
Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight
or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected during the next
several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge over the Caribbean
Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical
storm strength on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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