253
WTNT34 KNHC 041746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WINDS DECREASE FURTHER BUT IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued all of
the coastal warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although
the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of
Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and
flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and
Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through
Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is
forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through
early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this
afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge
over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday
night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land
during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more
hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches
(255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras..

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm),
isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to
125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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