WTPN21 PHNC 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.8N 110.8W TO 13.2N 116.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.0N 111.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0N 111.5W, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 021136Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING
AND AREAS OF CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CIRCULATION. INVEST 97E IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
031500Z.//
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