580
WTNT34 KNHC 021749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make
landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is
expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Etas eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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