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WTNT34 KNHC 011455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...
...SLOW-MOVING ETA IS LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 77.2W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Hurricane Warning from
the Honduras/Nicaragua border to Sandy Bay Sirpi.

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 77.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with
some decrease in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. A slower motion toward the west-southwest is forecast on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
cyclone is expected to be near the northeastern coasts of Nicaragua
and Honduras by Tuesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Eta is
expected to become a hurricane by late Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the Tropical Storm Warning area by late Monday, and hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday evening:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches, isolated amounts of 35 inches.

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches, isolated
amounts of 25 inches.

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches, isolated amounts of 15 inches over southern
areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches, isolated
amounts of 10 inches.

This rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Brown/Berg
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