880
WTNT42 KNHC 240842
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
500 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

Epsilon's convective pattern has continued to devolve into more of a
large comma-shaped pattern rather than the classical circular
structure of a mature tropical cyclone. There is a ragged remnant
eye, however, which has provided a good continuity feature to
track. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on a
Dvorak satellite current intensity (CI) estimate of T4.0/65 kt from
TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/10 kt.
Epsilon is now located north of the mid-oceanic subtropical ridge
axis, so acceleration into the faster mid-latitude westerlies is
expected to begin by this evening, if not sooner, and continue
through the weekend. The latest NHC model guidance is in excellent
agreement on this developing track scenario. The new NHC official
track forecast is almost identical to the previous advisory track,
and lies down the middle of the tightly packed simple- and
corrected-consensus track model envelope.

Epsilon will be moving off of a relatively warm Gulfstream eddy
(26.5 deg C sea-surface temperature/SST) in the next 6 h or so,
which should result in continued slow weakening through the weekend.
By 36 h, SSTs are expected to drop sharply to less than 20 deg C,
causing the complete erosion of any remaining inner-core convection
and resultant transition to a large and powerful extratropical low.
The post-tropical cyclone will continue to produce a large area of
gale- and storm-force winds right up until the time that it merges
with a larger extratropical low over the far northern Atlantic by
late Monday or Tuesday. That low pressure system will likely
produce hazardous conditions over portions of far North Atlantic
through the middle of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 36.9N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 38.8N 59.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 41.5N 55.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 45.0N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 26/0600Z 49.1N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 26/1800Z 53.3N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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