WTPN21 PGTW 140700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 123.6E TO 15.0N 115.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
12.6N 124.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 140101Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING
FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150700Z.//
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